On the second traditional lay day of the JJ Giltinan 18ft Skiff event in Sydney, after five heats have been sailed, it is always interesting to look at the points situation and consider the effect the discard will have at the end of the regatta.

If we look at the situation at this point and assume a discard, the relative positions of the boats are affected surprisingly little – just a place or two here or there. In fact, the order of the first six boats in this year’s event is not affected at all if we take the discard into account at this moment. The more significant fact is that the difference in scores between one boat and the next vary depending on how consistent they have been.

To illustrate this, the consistent RMW Marine currently heads the standings with a reasonably comfortable lead over General Electric of 12.7 points, but when the discard is applied, the less consistent General Electric’s deficit is reduced to only 3.7 points, which makes their chances of making it up in the final two heats appear much better.

So, it seems nice to be able to drop a bad score at this stage, but the problem is that incurring another bad one in the final two heats will mean that the least bad one will have to counted, which is likely to be very detrimental.

In fact, the whole thing is so full of ifs, buts and endless combinations that trying to make too much of it at this stage is probably not a very good idea. It will make much more sense to look at it after the penultimate heat tomorrow.

In the meantime, for those who like to speculate on what might happen, the points with and without a discard are shown below.

The only certain thing is that, with the current leader of the world rankings sitting at the top of the points table, followed quite closely by the reigning world champion, and then by a five times world champion, there is still some fantastic racing to come over the weekend.

Points after five heats without a discard

1. RMW Marine, Rob Greenhalgh GBR, 22 points

2. General Electric, Howard Hamlin USA, 34.7 points

3. Omega Smeg, Trevor Barnabas AUS 36.7 points

4. Total Recall, Tony Hannan AUS, 39.4 points

5. Express Post, Hugh Stodart AUS, 50 points

6. Aristocrat, Gary Phillips AUS, 59 points

7. Yandoo, John Winning AUS, 64 points

8. Computer Associates, Jack Young AUS, 65.1 points

9. Casio Seapathfinder, Michael Coxon AUS, 79.7 points

10. Asko Appliances, David Lumb AUS, 86 points

11. Terry Hogan Prestige Cars, Chris Dixon AUS, 107 points

12. Flawless, Pablo Soldano ITA, 110 points

13. Fisher & Paykal, Grant Rollerson AUS, 111.7 points

14. Rag & Famish Hotel, Warwick Rooklyn AUS, 114 points

15. Churchill’s Sports Bar, Ben Austin AUS, 115 points

16. Ovington Boats, Dave Ovington GBR, 121 points

17. Radii, Andy Richards GBR, 122 points

18. New Zealand, Chris Skinner NZL, 129 points

19= Sunday Telegraph, Clynton Wade-Lehman RSA, 130 points

19= Link Associates, Tim Penfold GBR, 130 points

21. Avaya, Peter Morrison AUS, 135 points

22. Ronstan, Geoff Carveth GBR, 139 points

23. Computacenter, Neale Fitzgerald GBR, 143 points

24. Ernst & Young, Jarrod Simpson GBR, 144 points

25. Base 1, Rob Dulson GBR, 148 points

26. Rosemount, Micah Lane AUS, 155 points

27. Hermes, Ed Browne GBR, 156 points

28. Team Canada, Fred Eaton CDN, 160 points

Points after five heats with a discard

1. RMW Marine, 12 points

2. General Electric, 15.7 points

3. Omega Smeg, 22.7 points

4. Total Recall, 29.4 points

5. Express Post, 37 points

6. Aristocrat, 41 points

7. Casio Seapathfinder, 43.7 points

8. Yandoo, 46 points

9. Computer Associates, 48.1 points

10. Asko Appliances, 64 points

11. Flawless, 74 points

12. Fisher & Paykel, 74.7 points

13. Rag & Famish Hotel, 77 points

14. Terry Hogan Prestige Cars, 79 points

15. Churchill’s Sports Bar, 82 points

16. Radii, 86 points

17. Ovington Boats, 90 points

18= Sunday Telegraph, 93 points

18= New Zealand, 93 points

20. Link Associates, 94 points

21. Avaya, 97 points

22= Ernst & Young, 106 points

22= Ronstan, 106 points

24. Computacenter, 107 points

25. Base 1, 112 points

26= Rosemount, 119 points

26= Hermes, 119 points

28. Team Canada, 124 points