The weather will certainly favour the bigger boats but for the smaller boats in the fleet, it’s not as bad as it could be
The Azores High is visiting Europe at the moment and there’s a ridge of high pressure extending from the Azores to Central Europe and this is pushing the incoming Atlantic lows north.
The prevailing winds are associated with a 991 low pressure in East Faroes, filling and moving slowly east. This will give the fleet a southwest Force 5 for a drizzly beat up the Solent, southwest Force 4 outside and this will drop to Force 3 overnight.
Tomorrow, the Force 4 southwesterly will veer before becoming influenced by southerly sea breezes around mid afternoon. Better breeze will arrive from the west during the afternoon, back southwest and build as the next system, a 985 low pressure system, approaches. It will be centred 250 miles west of Bailey by 0700 tomorrow.
The big boats will tear off upwind and probably be heading back east by the time the stronger southwesterlies return. The smaller boats will have a fairly lengthy beat up the southwest coast followed by a powerful reach across the Irish Sea.