This isn't quite the end of the Round Robin 2 but you can see the shape from here. Of the solitary team being eliminated at the close of the double round-robin, after just 16 races, the choice is straightforward: either le defi Areva or Mascalzone will be going home.
Of the teams vying for the top half of the draw for the quarter-finals, look no further than Alinghi, OneWorld, Oracle BMW and Prada. Pick of the bunch in the first round, Alinghi and OneWorld remain the two teams likely to top the tables. Russell Coutts' SUI 64 could get a maximum 14 wins from her 16 races while Peter Gilmour's potential tally with USA 67 is 13.
Prada's between-rounds surgery has proven effective with the re-bowed ITA 74 able to score a maximum of 12 wins. Change too has given new vigour to Oracle BMW, with Chris Dickson brought in from the cold to take over as skipper of USA 76. The boat's keel depth has been reduced and sail area boosted. Again, 12 wins are the best potential tally.
The final shake out will be determined by the weekend's racing with Oracle BMW hoping to brush aside the French, Swedes and British in the concluding races. OneWorld has Prada to confront in one of their remaining matches while Prada have perhaps the toughest draw with both Alinghi and OneWorld lying in wait.
Don't dismiss these permutations as academic. The teams most certainly don't, for the prize of topping the table is valuable. As top seed, the winner has the right of picking its quarter-final opponent. This is real poser, a problem worthy of endless analysis.
Why? At it's most straightforward, the winner has the choice to meet a perceived strong rival sooner rather than later in the semi-finals. Apply a little bit of Machiavellian thought to the matter and you could chose knocked a perceived strong opponent into what you might believe to be the tougher of the two quarter-final pairings in the top half of the draw.
The losers, of course, get a second chance in the repecharge round, but even this 'life' comes at a cost. It is another best -of -seven knock out and all the time this goes on sails are being used and fatigued. And sail use is a major issue for the challengers because of the sail limitation rule. The more a challenger races, the more precious, limit of 45 sails are being consumed.
And don't forget, in the meantime, the defender continues to sit on the huge advantage of being allowed 60 sails and no defence trials to burn them out in.
This top ranking situation is the same for the bottom half of the draw with fifth placed team in the rounds robin allowed to pick its opponent from the bottom half of the draw.
From start to end, America's Cup racing is a high stakes game.
Tim Jeffery, 1 November 2002
